Relations downgrade: DIPLOMAT – MOSCOW — Zelenskiy, Astrakhanskaya Oblast', Russia
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (58% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
The events behind it
Relations downgrade: CANADA – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: MARINES – UKRAINE — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: MARK CARNEY – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: CANADA – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: UNITED KINGDOM – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: UNITED KINGDOM – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: DIPLOMAT – MOSCOW — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: UNITED KINGDOM – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: DIPLOMAT – MOSCOW — Zelenskiy, Astrakhanskaya Oblast', Russia
Relations downgrade: DIPLOMAT – MOSCOW — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: EUROPEAN – MOSCOW — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: RUSSIA — Kremlin, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: WASHINGTON – IRAN — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: WASHINGTON — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: RUSSIA – MOSCOW — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: CHINA – RUSSIA — Russia
Relations downgrade: UKRAINE – RUSSIA — Kremlin, Moskva, Russia
Relations downgrade: RUSSIA – UKRAINIAN — Russia
Relations downgrade: UNITED KINGDOM — Merkuriy, Smolenskaya Oblast', Russia
Relations downgrade: UKRAINIAN – RUSSIA — Russia