Coercion: MILITARY — Khartoum, Al Khartum, Sudan
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 8 days (80% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
The events behind it
Coercion: EGYPT – REFUGEE — Sudan
Coercion: MILITARY — Khartoum, Al Khartum, Sudan
Coercion: SUDAN – AFGHAN — Sudan
Coercion: STUDENT – AFGHAN — Sudan
Coercion: MIGRANT – SUDAN — Sudan
Coercion: SUDAN – SOUTH SUDAN — Nyala, Janub Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: SUDAN – SOUTH SUDAN — Nyala, Janub Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT – DARFUR — Darfur, Gharb Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: NATIONAL COURT — Khartoum, Al Khartum, Sudan
Coercion: SUDAN – DARFUR — Nyala, Janub Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: NYALA – DARFUR — Nyala, Janub Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: SUDAN — Nyala, Janub Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: WORKER — Sudan
Coercion: SUDAN — Nyala, Janub Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: KHARTOUM — Darfur, Gharb Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: KHARTOUM — Khartoum, Al Khartum, Sudan
Coercion: DARFUR – PARALLEL GOVERNMENT — Darfur, Gharb Darfur, Sudan
Coercion: DARFUR – PARALLEL GOVERNMENT — Khartoum, Al Khartum, Sudan
Coercion: DARFUR – PARALLEL GOVERNMENT — Port Sudan, Al Ba?r al A?mar, Sudan
Coercion: DARFUR – PARALLEL GOVERNMENT — Port Sudan, Al Ba?r al A?mar, Sudan