Coercion: AFGHANISTAN – TALIBAN — Herat, Herat, Afghanistan
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 6 days (55% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
The events behind it
Coercion: AFGHANISTAN – TALIBAN — Herat, Herat, Afghanistan
Coercion: DETECTIVE – AFGHANISTAN — Afghanistan
Coercion: DETECTIVE – ABDULLAH — Afghanistan
Coercion: CRIMINAL — Nowruz, Badakhshan, Afghanistan
Coercion: CRIMINAL – TALIBAN — Nowruz, Badakhshan, Afghanistan
Coercion: SCHOOL – TALIBAN — Bagram, Parvan, Afghanistan
Coercion: UN – GENEVA — Afghanistan
Coercion: TALIBAN – RADIO STATION — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: AUSTRIA – AFGHAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: AUSTRIA – AFGHANISTAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: TALIBAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: AFGHANISTAN – WORKER — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: TALIBAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: AFGHANISTAN – AFGHANISTAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: JUDGE — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: JUDGE – AFGHANISTAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Coercion: HERAT – POLICE — Herat, Herat, Afghanistan
Coercion: TALIBAN – HERAT — Herat, Herat, Afghanistan
Coercion: PHILADELPHIA – UNITED STATES — Afghanistan
Coercion: PRISONER OF WAR – AFGHANISTAN — Afghanistan