Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 6 days (67% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
The events behind it
Threat: IRAN – UNITED STATES — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Iran
Threat: SECURITY OFFICIAL – IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: A US – IRAN — Iran
Threat: A US – IRAN — Iran
Threat: PRESIDENT – IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: PRESIDENT – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: MILITARY – TEHRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN – PRESIDENT — Iran
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: ISRAEL – BEIRUT — Iran
Threat: MILITARY – TEHRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: DAKAR – IRAN — Iran
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Threat: IRAN – BEIRUT — Iran