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As Wednesday brings the 11-year mark since the mass shooting at Mother Emanuel AME Church, Sen. Tim Scott, a native of North Charleston, finds himself still mourning. Read more: https://bit.ly/4uPHtrO

No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.

Why: it has occurred on 3 days — every day we've been watching, usually around 18:47 UTC.

Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.

How accurate have we been?

We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.

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As Wednesday brings the 11-year mark since the mass shooting at Mothe… — recurring pattern · Defaxon