Armed clash: SECURITY CHECK — Kathmandu, Bagmati, Nepal
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 3 days — every day we've been watching.
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
The events behind it
Armed clash: POLICE — Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL — Nepal
Armed clash: GOVERNMENT – KATHMANDU — Kathmandu Valley, Nepal (general), Nepal
Armed clash: SETTLEMENT – NEPAL — Meghauli, Nepal (general), Nepal
Armed clash: SETTLEMENT — Meghauli, Nepal (general), Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL — Nepal
Armed clash: SETTLEMENT — Meghauli, Nepal (general), Nepal
Armed clash: SETTLEMENT – NEPAL — Meghauli, Nepal (general), Nepal
Armed clash: NEPALESE – SCHOOL — Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL — Kathmandu, Bagmati, Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL – COMPANY — Kathmandu, Bagmati, Nepal
Armed clash: COMPANY — Lubhu, Nepal (general), Nepal
Armed clash: KARNATAKA — Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL — Nepal
Armed clash: FIREFIGHTER — Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL – KARNATAKA — Nepal
Armed clash: COMPANY — Lubhu, Nepal (general), Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL — Kathmandu, Bagmati, Nepal
Armed clash: NEPAL – COMPANY — Kathmandu, Bagmati, Nepal
Armed clash: POLICE — Kathmandu, Bagmati, Nepal