Armed clash: SOMALIA — Jamaame, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 5 days — every day we've been watching.
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
The events behind it
Armed clash: BIRMINGHAM — Somalia
Armed clash: BIRMINGHAM – GANG — Somalia
Armed clash: UNITED KINGDOM – MALI — Somalia
Armed clash: ARMED POLICE – SOMALI — Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALIA — Jamaame, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
Armed clash: CIVILIAN — Jamaame, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
Armed clash: COMMANDER – SOMALI — Jamaame, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALIA — Jamaame, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
Armed clash: MOGADISHU — Mogadishu, Banaadir, Somalia
Armed clash: MILITARY – MILITANT — Mogadishu, Banaadir, Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALIA — Ras Kamboni, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALIA — Mogadishu, Banaadir, Somalia
Armed clash: MOGADISHU – SOMALI — Mogadishu, Banaadir, Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALI — Ras Kamboni, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALI — Mogadishu, Banaadir, Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALIA – FIGHTER — Danab, Awdal, Somalia
Armed clash: SOMALIA – EXTREMIST — Somaliland, Somalia (general), Somalia
Armed clash: MILITANT — Kismayo, Jubbada Hoose, Somalia
Armed clash: SPECIAL FORCES – FIGHTER — Danab, Awdal, Somalia
Armed clash: ISRAEL – EXTREMIST — Somaliland, Somalia (general), Somalia