Appeal: GERMANY – POLISH — Berlin, Berlin, Germany
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (54% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Public statement: CHINA – UNITED STATES — Beijing, Beijing, China
- Diplomatic cooperation: UNITED STATES — Rome, Lazio, Italy
- Coercion: AMBASSADOR — Soweto, Gauteng, South Africa
- Appeal: CHINA — Beijing, Beijing, China
- Appeal: KENYA — Kenya
- Diplomatic cooperation: SOUTH KOREA – BRAZIL — South Korea
- Diplomatic cooperation: TAMA – GOVERNMENT — Waimakariri, New Zealand (general), New Zealand
- Consultation: TAIPEI – PHILIPPINE — Lanyu, Taidong Xian, Taiwan
The events behind it
Appeal: CITIZEN – GERMANY — Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Appeal: COMPANY – EUROPEAN — Munich, Bayern, Germany
Appeal: COMPANY – GERMANY — Munich, Bayern, Germany
Appeal: COMPANY – EUROPEAN — Munich, Bayern, Germany
Appeal: GERMAN – UNITED STATES — Germany
Appeal: GOOGLE – NEWSPAPER — Germany
Appeal: GERMANY – POLISH — Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Appeal: SWEDEN — Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Appeal: FRANCE — Germany
Appeal: UNITED STATES – GERMANY — Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Appeal: GERMAN – GERMANY — Germany
Appeal: GERMAN — Germany
Appeal: THE EU — Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Appeal: RUSSIA – KYIV — Germany
Appeal: AUSTRALIA — Munich, Bayern, Germany
Appeal: UNITED STATES — Germany
Appeal: MEDIA — Hanover, Niedersachsen, Germany
Appeal: GERMANY — Germany
Appeal: UNITED KINGDOM — Germany
Appeal: UNITED KINGDOM — Germany