Public statement: RESIDENTS — Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, Thailand
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (54% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Public statement: CHINA – UNITED STATES — Beijing, Beijing, China
- Diplomatic cooperation: UNITED STATES — Rome, Lazio, Italy
- Coercion: AMBASSADOR — Soweto, Gauteng, South Africa
- Appeal: CHINA — Beijing, Beijing, China
- Appeal: KENYA — Kenya
- Diplomatic cooperation: SOUTH KOREA – BRAZIL — South Korea
- Diplomatic cooperation: TAMA – GOVERNMENT — Waimakariri, New Zealand (general), New Zealand
- Consultation: TAIPEI – PHILIPPINE — Lanyu, Taidong Xian, Taiwan
The events behind it
Public statement: CAMBODIA – NEW YORK — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND — Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, Thailand
Public statement: RESIDENTS — Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND – MEDIA — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND – MEDIA — Don Mueang, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND – MEDIA — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND — Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND – KING — Nong Mali, Nong Khai, Thailand
Public statement: BANGKOK — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND — Nong Mali, Nong Khai, Thailand
Public statement: THAI – JAPANESE — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: MYANMAR – THAI — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: STUDENT — Thailand
Public statement: HANOVER – THAI — Thailand
Public statement: BUDDHIST MONK — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
Public statement: UNITED STATES — Bali, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand
Public statement: THAILAND — Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, Thailand
Public statement: THAI — Thailand
Public statement: BHUMIBOL ADULYADEJ — Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, Thailand
Public statement: BHUMIBOL ADULYADEJ – THAILAND — Mae Salong, Chiang Rai, Thailand