Coercion: ISRAEL – ACTIVIST — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 11 days (85% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
The events behind it
Coercion: LONDON — Israel
Coercion: RIGHTS GROUP – UNITED KINGDOM — Ramat Eshkol, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: ISRAEL – WEST BANK — Israel
Coercion: NASSER – TURKEY — Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: NASSER – TURKEY — Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: COMMUNITY – ISRAEL — Israel
Coercion: UNITED STATES – ISRAEL — Israel
Coercion: MALIAN – JOURNALIST — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: ISRAEL – LONDON — Hebron, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: GOVERNMENT – PALESTINE — Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: GOVERNMENT – ISRAEL — Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: GOVERNMENT — Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: DEPUTY – MEDIA — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Coercion: HAREDI — Israel
Coercion: HAREDI – ISRAEL — Israel
Coercion: ISRAEL — Israel
Coercion: UNITED KINGDOM — Israel
Coercion: LONDON – GOVERNMENT — Israel
Coercion: IRAN – UNITED STATES — Israel
Coercion: IRAN – UNITED STATES — Israel