Public statement: ISLAMABAD – KABUL — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (54% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Public statement: CHINA — Ziyang, Anhui, China
- Diplomatic cooperation: SCHOOL – ITALY — Rome, Lazio, Italy
- Coercion: AFRICA — Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa
- Appeal: CHINA — China
- Appeal: DELEGATE — Lamu, Coast, Kenya
- Diplomatic cooperation: UNIVERSITY — Seoul, Soul-t'ukpyolsi, South Korea
- Diplomatic cooperation: STUDENT — Bay Of Plenty, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
- Consultation: COMPANY – SAMSUNG — Taiwan
The events behind it
Public statement: VOTER – HOSPITAL — Afghanistan
Public statement: BOEING — Afghanistan
Public statement: ISLAMABAD – KABUL — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Public statement: KABUL – ISLAMABAD — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Public statement: ISLAMIC – TALIBAN — Herat, Herat, Afghanistan
Public statement: AFGHANISTAN — Afghanistan
Public statement: TALIBAN – THE UN — Afghanistan
Public statement: PAKISTAN – AFGHANISTAN — Afghanistan
Public statement: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY – AFGHAN — Afghanistan
Public statement: AFGHANISTAN — Kapisa, Kapisa, Afghanistan
Public statement: MUSLIM – TALIBAN — Herat, Herat, Afghanistan
Public statement: TALIBAN – ISLAMIC — Herat, Herat, Afghanistan
Public statement: AFGHANISTAN – ARMY — Kapisa, Kapisa, Afghanistan
Public statement: AFGHANISTAN — Kapisa, Kapisa, Afghanistan
Public statement: PAKISTAN – AFGHANISTAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Public statement: PAKISTAN – AFGHANISTAN — Kabul, Kabol, Afghanistan
Public statement: CHINA – AFGHANISTAN — Afghanistan
Public statement: AFGHANISTAN – UNITED STATES — Afghanistan
Public statement: AFGHANISTAN – CHINA — Afghanistan
Public statement: AFGHANISTAN – RUSSIA — Afghanistan