DefaxonA live map of what's happening on Earth.MetricsGet the data

Coercion: IRAN – MIGRANT — Bangui, Bangui, Central African Republic

No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.

Why: it has occurred on 4 days (40% of the days we've watched).

Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.

How accurate have we been?

We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.

The events behind it

← Back to the live map

Coercion: IRAN – MIGRANT — Bangui, Bangui, Central African Republic — recurring pattern · Defaxon