Diplomatic cooperation: UNITED STATES β IRAN β Ukraine
No next occurrence is being forecast right now β this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 9 days (69% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again β its rhythm β not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether itβs on time. Itβs probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
Weβre still building its track record β no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to β or β over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence β an observation, not causation.
- Public statement: SABAH β Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Coercion: JUDGE β Fagbemi, Nigeria (general), Nigeria
The events behind it
Diplomatic cooperation: RUSSIA β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: RUSSIA β UKRAINE β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: GERMAN β UKRAINE β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: RUSSIA β MILITARY β Luhansk, Luhans'ka Oblast', Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: THE EUROPEAN UNION β CITIZEN β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: UKRAINE β Ural, Zaporiz'ka Oblast', Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: ANKARA β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: ANKARA β UKRAINE β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: UKRAINE β Ural, Zaporiz'ka Oblast', Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: IRAN β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: CHANCELLOR β UKRAINE β Ural, Zaporiz'ka Oblast', Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: CHANCELLOR β Ural, Zaporiz'ka Oblast', Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: EUROPE β UKRAINE β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: SETTLEMENT β UKRAINE β Ural, Zaporiz'ka Oblast', Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: CITIZEN β THE EUROPEAN UNION β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: GERMAN β UKRAINE β Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: UKRAINIAN β UKRAINE β Kyiv, Kyyiv, Misto, Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: LEGISLATOR β REGULATOR β Kiev, Ukraine (general), Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: LEGISLATOR β REGULATOR β Kiev, Ukraine (general), Ukraine
Diplomatic cooperation: UKRAINIAN β UKRAINE β Ukraine