Threat: RHODE ISLAND
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 6 days — every day we've been watching.
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Flash Flood Warning issued June 17 at 4:55AM CDT until June 17 at 8:00AM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX FFWHGX The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... So
- Assault: RUSSIA — Pokrovsk, Mordoviya, Russia
- Diplomatic cooperation: ACTOR — Quraysh, Al Ba?ah, Saudi Arabia
- Public statement: HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH – ISRAEL — Rome, Lazio, Italy
- Intent to cooperate: NIGERIA – JUDGE — Enugu, Enugu, Nigeria
- Public statement: DELEGATE – PORTUGAL — Limeira, SãPaulo, Brazil
- Consultation: EUROPE – BRATISLAVA — Bratislava, Bratislavsky Kraj, Slovak Republic
- Concession: PAKISTAN — Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
The events behind it
Threat: TENANTS
Threat: PARLIAMENT
Threat: GOVERNMENT – WELSH
Threat: HOSPITAL – RESIDENTS
Threat: EUROPEAN
Threat: AUTHORITIES – PUBLICATION
Threat: ATTORNEY
Threat: SCHOOL
Threat: BUSINESS
Threat: SPOKESMAN
Threat: AFRICA
Threat: INTELLIGENCE – COMPANY
Threat: POPULATION
Threat: CRIMINAL
Threat: TOLEDO
Threat: WALES – PARLIAMENT
Threat: JUBA – POPULATION
Threat: GREECE — Ionian Sea, Oceans (general), Oceans
Threat: STUDENT
Threat: POLICE – RESIDENTS