Coercion: KATSINA – BUSINESS
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 9 days — every day we've been watching.
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA — Egypt
- Consultation: EUROPE – BRATISLAVA — Bratislava, Bratislavsky Kraj, Slovak Republic
- Diplomatic cooperation: RUSSIA – UKRAINE — Ukraine
- Concession: POLICE — Chakwal, Punjab, Pakistan
- Public statement: AIRLINE — Rio De Janeiro, Estado do Rio, Brazil
- Diplomatic cooperation: KINGDOM — Riyadh, Ar Riya?, Saudi Arabia
- Appeal: CALIFORNIA — Spain
- Armed clash: ISRAEL – WEST BANK — Salfit, West Bank (general), West Bank
The events behind it
Coercion: GOVERNMENT – COMMUNITY
Coercion: SUPERIOR COURT – LOS ANGELES
Coercion: POLICE – MANITOBA
Coercion: LORRAINE
Coercion: NAGALAND
Coercion: POLICE
Coercion: NOVA SCOTIA
Coercion: BRUNSWICK
Coercion: PORTLAND
Coercion: POLICE – MANCHESTER
Coercion: BLANTYRE
Coercion: CALGARY – SCHOOL
Coercion: POLICE – SCHOOL
Coercion: PITTSBURGH
Coercion: LAGOS – DOCTOR
Coercion: COMMUNITY
Coercion: POLICE – MALE
Coercion: DELHI – COLLEGE — Indian Ocean, ,
Coercion: KERALA – STUDENT
Coercion: MANCHESTER – NEW HAMPSHIRE