Show of force: ARMENIAN – UNITED STATES — Kansas, United States
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 8 days — every day we've been watching.
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Consultation: EUROPE – BRATISLAVA — Bratislava, Bratislavsky Kraj, Slovak Republic
- Diplomatic cooperation: MINIST – COMPANIES — Suez Canal, As Suways, Egypt
- Diplomatic cooperation: RIYADH – LEBANESE — Riyadh, Ar Riya?, Saudi Arabia
- Concession: PAKISTANI – MILITARY — Kashmir, North-West Frontier, Pakistan
- Public statement: BRAZILIAN – MEDIA — Brazil
- Intent to cooperate: NIGERIA – PROTESTER — Oyo State, Oyo, Nigeria
- Public statement: MAYOR — Arezzo, Toscana, Italy
- Assault: UKRAINE – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
The events behind it
Show of force: AIR FORCE – TEXAS — Colorado, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL GUARD — Washington, District of Columbia, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL GUARD — New York, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL GUARD — Washington, District of Columbia, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL GUARD — New York, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – PROTESTER — Minnesota, United States
Show of force: NATIONAL GUARD – WASHINGTON — Washington, District of Columbia, United States
Show of force: UNITED STATES – NATIONAL GUARD — Washington, District of Columbia, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL GUARD — Washington, District of Columbia, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL GUARD — Washington, District of Columbia, United States
Show of force: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL GUARD — New York, United States
Show of force: UNITED STATES – WASHINGTON — Washington, District of Columbia, United States
Show of force: WEST VIRGINIA – WASHINGTON — West Virginia, United States
Show of force: UNITED STATES — Minnesota, United States
Show of force: MINNESOTA — Minnesota, United States
Show of force: CUBA – MISSISSIPPI — Camp Shelby, Mississippi, United States
Show of force: SOTO – UNITED STATES — Camp Shelby, Mississippi, United States
Show of force: SOTO – MISSISSIPPI — Camp Shelby, Mississippi, United States
Show of force: POLICE — Mississippi, United States
Show of force: POLICE – UNITED STATES — Mississippi, United States