Threat: NIGERIA — Apapa, Lagos, Nigeria
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days — every day we've been watching.
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- DVN issues Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: radar indicated] for Cedar, Iowa, Johnson, Jones, Keokuk, Linn, Louisa, Muscatine, Washington [IA] and Mercer, Rock Island [IL] till Ju... at Wed, 17 Jun 2
- Intent to cooperate: ADMINISTRATION – NIGERIA — Enugu, Enugu, Nigeria
- Concession: FARMER – CHINA — Pakistan
- Diplomatic cooperation: YEMEN – IRAN — Mecca, Makkah, Saudi Arabia
- Public statement: AUSTRALIA — Rio Tinto, Parahyba, Brazil
- Consultation: PRIME MINISTER – SLOVAKIA — Bratislava, Bratislavsky Kraj, Slovak Republic
- Public statement: ITALIAN – MEDIA — Rome, Lazio, Italy
- Assault: RUSSIA — Zapad, Irkutskaya Oblast', Russia
The events behind it
Threat: DEPUTY – OPPOSITION PARTIES — Ondo State, Ondo, Nigeria
Threat: AFRICA – MIGRANT — Nigeria
Threat: NIGERIA – OPPOSITION PARTIES — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
Threat: NIGERIA — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
Threat: NIGERIA – ADVOCATE — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
Threat: CHRISTIAN – NIGERIA — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
Threat: ADVOCATE — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
Threat: NIGERIA — Apapa, Lagos, Nigeria
Threat: NIGERIA — Anambra, Nigeria (general), Nigeria
Threat: GOVERNMENT — Oyo State, Oyo, Nigeria
Threat: NIGERIA — Oyo State, Oyo, Nigeria
Threat: AUTHORITIES – ETHIOPIAN — Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
Threat: AUTHORITIES – ETHIOPIAN — Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
Threat: POLICE — Nasarawa, Sokoto, Nigeria
Threat: POLICE – NIGERIA — Nasarawa, Sokoto, Nigeria
Threat: MINIST – RESIDENTS — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
Threat: MIGRANT — Nigeria
Threat: JUSTICE SYSTEM – CITIZEN — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
Threat: ADVOCATE – NIGERIA — Niger Delta, Nigeria (general), Nigeria
Threat: NIGERIA – CITIZEN — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria