Threat: UNITED KINGDOM — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 8 days (67% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Public statement: MALAYSIA — Malaysia
- Intent to cooperate: EGYPT – PRESBYTERIAN — Egypt
- Consultation: EGYPT — Egypt
- Diplomatic cooperation: MOROCCAN – EGYPTIAN — Cairo, Al Qahirah, Egypt
- Consultation: OIL TANKER – AFRICA — Athens, AttikíR, Greece
- Intent to cooperate: THE POPE — Rome, Lazio, Italy
- Investigation: HERMOSILLO — Israel
- Intent to cooperate: IRELAND — Ireland
The events behind it
Threat: MOSCOW – SPY SHIP — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: ARMENIA – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: FRANCE – UNITED KINGDOM — Russia
Threat: RUSSIA – UNITED KINGDOM — Russia
Threat: RUSSIA – UNITED KINGDOM — Russia
Threat: THE EU – HUNGARY — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: BRUSSELS – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: ADMIRAL – RUSSIA — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: MILITARY — Russia
Threat: MOSCOW – AFGHANISTAN — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: RUSSIA – UNITED KINGDOM — Russia
Threat: RUSSIA – UNITED KINGDOM — Russia
Threat: WARSHIP – RUSSIA — Russia
Threat: RUSSIA – AFGHANISTAN — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Threat: RUSSIA – MILITARY — Russia
Threat: RUSSIA – UNITED KINGDOM — Russia
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM – RUSSIA — Ust Luga, Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM — Moscow, Moskva, Russia