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Assault: GOVERNMENT — Niger Delta, Nigeria (general), Nigeria

No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.

Why: it has occurred on 10 days (83% of the days we've watched).

Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.

How accurate have we been?

We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.

Patterns that recur together

On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.

The events behind it

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