Intent to cooperate: UKRAINE — Japan

No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.

Why: it has occurred on 7 days (78% of the days we've watched).

Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.

How accurate have we been?

We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.

Patterns that recur together

On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.

Disapproval: UKRAINE – COMMENTATOR — Luhansk, Luhans'ka Oblast', Ukraine1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later
Consultation: AFRICA – DURBAN — Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later
Diplomatic cooperation: THE EU – EMPLOYEE — Berlin, Berlin, Germany1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later
Assault: CHRISTIAN — Ariko, Nigeria (general), Nigeria1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later
Diplomatic cooperation: HOSPITAL — Doha, Ad Daw?ah, Qatar1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later
Diplomatic cooperation: GROUP OF SEVEN — France1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later
Consultation: UNITED KINGDOM – PORTUGUESE — Netherlands1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later
Consultation: MADRID — Madrid, Madrid, Spain1.9× lift · together on 7 of 7 days · typically ~0m later

The events behind it

Intent to cooperate: ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: JAPAN — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: SOUTH KOREA – JAPAN — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: DELEGATE – JAPAN — Higashiomi, Shiga, Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Higashiomi, Shiga, Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: JAPANESE – COMPANY — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: JAPAN — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: SOUTH KOREA – JAPAN — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: UNIONS – COMPANY — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: JAPAN — Osaka, Osaka, Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Osaka, Osaka, Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: JAPAN – AFRICA — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: UKRAINE — Japan
Geopolitics✓ corroborated · 50%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: JAPAN – UNIVERSITY — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: UNIVERSITY – JAPAN — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: JAPAN – WARSHIP — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: COMPANY – JAPANESE — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: SCHOOL — Sakura, Chiba, Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Sakura, Chiba, Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: TOKYO – PRESIDENT — Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan·2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: BURGUNDY — Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan·2026-06-16 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: IRAN – UKRAINE — Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Japan·2026-06-16 00:00 UTC
Intent to cooperate: PRODUCER — Osaka, Osaka, Japan
Geopolitics⚠ unverified · 35%Osaka, Osaka, Japan·2026-06-16 00:00 UTC

← Back to the live map

🔁 Intent to cooperate: UKRAINE — Japan

How accurate have we been?

Patterns that recur together

The events behind it

Intent to cooperate: UKRAINE — Japan