Threat: ISRAEL – TERRORIST — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 9 days (75% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Concession: PRIME MINISTER — India
- Diplomatic cooperation: UKRAINIAN – EUROPEAN — Ramstein, Baden-Wüberg, Germany
- Consultation: FRANCE — Spain
- Disapproval: POLAND – UKRAINIAN — Ukraine
- Diplomatic cooperation: SWITZERLAND – PALACE OF VERSAILLES — Qatar
- Diplomatic cooperation: MEDIA – FRANCE — France
- Assault: GUNMEN – ABUJA — Abuja, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria
- Consultation: THE EU — Netherlands
The events behind it
Threat: ISRAEL – TURKIYE — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: WASHINGTON – UNITED STATES — Hebron, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: ISLAMIC – ISRAEL — Hebron, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: IRAN – LEBANON — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: HOSPITAL – PALESTINIAN — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: ISRAEL — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: ISRAEL – TERRORIST — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: ISRAEL – TERRORIST — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: ISRAEL — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: ISRAEL – LEBANON — Israel
Threat: ISRAEL — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: FRANCE – IRAN — Israel
Threat: ISRAEL – TURKIYE — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Givati, HaDarom, Israel
Threat: ISRAEL – IRAN — Gaza, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: THE WHITE HOUSE – TEHRAN — Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: AIRLINE – DUBAI — Israel
Threat: UNITED STATES – ISRAEL — Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Israel
Threat: JEWISH – CANADIAN — Israel