Threat: LEBANON – IRAN — Lebanon
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (78% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Disapproval: RUSSIA – UKRAINE — Ukraine
- Intent to cooperate: JAPAN — Japan
- Diplomatic cooperation: POLAND – GERMAN — Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Assault: NIGERIA – KATSINA — Katsina State, Katsina, Nigeria
- Diplomatic cooperation: AMBASSADOR – QATAR — Doha, Ad Daw?ah, Qatar
- Diplomatic cooperation: BRUSSELS – UNITED STATES — France
- Consultation: UKRAINE – NAVAL OFFICER — Alblasserdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
- Consultation: ZULU — Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
The events behind it
Threat: LEBANON – IRAN — Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Lebanon
Threat: UNITED STATES – IRAN — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – MILITARY — Lebanon
Threat: ISRAEL — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Threat: LEBANON – ISRAEL — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Threat: LEBANON – ISRAEL — Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Lebanon
Threat: PENNY WONG — Lebanon
Threat: LEBANON – ISRAEL — Haddatha, Nabatî, Lebanon
Threat: IRAN — Lebanon
Threat: ISRAEL — Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Lebanon
Threat: LEBANON – ISRAEL — Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – ISRAEL — Lebanon
Threat: IRAN — Lebanon
Threat: ISRAEL – LEBANON — Lebanon
Threat: IRAN – LEBANON — Lebanon