Intent to cooperate: IRAN – UNITED STATES — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 5 days (45% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Appeal: INVESTOR – GOVERNMENT — Germany
- Public statement: MINIST – AIRLINE — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
- Consultation: HAVANA — Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba
- Public statement: NEW SOUTH WALES – GREECE — Neos Kosmos, Perifereia Peloponnisou, Greece
- Coercion: IRELAND — Carnsore Point, Wexford, Ireland
- Public statement: TURKISH — Ankara, Ankara, Turkey
- Material cooperation: BANGKOK – LONDON — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
- Public statement: CITIZEN — Kalyan, Maharashtra, India
The events behind it
Intent to cooperate: GENEVA – PAKISTAN — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: GENEVA — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: GENEVA – PAKISTAN — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: SWITZERLAND — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: PRISONER – HAMAS — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: PAKISTANI – PAKISTAN — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: GENEVA — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: PRESIDENT — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: IRAN – PRESIDENT — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: IRAN – PAKISTAN — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: SWITZERLAND — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: IRAN — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: POPULATION — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: POPULATION — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: FRENCH — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: UNITED STATES – IRAN — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: IRAN — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: IRAN – UNITED STATES — Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: MEDIA — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon
Intent to cooperate: PRESIDENT – MEDIA — Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon