Intent to cooperate: TEHRAN — Hurmuz, Siirt, Turkey
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 5 days (45% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Appeal: CHANCELLOR — Germany
- Public statement: MINIST – AIRLINE — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
- Consultation: PRISONER — Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba
- Public statement: ATHENS – COMMUNITY — Athens, AttikíR, Greece
- Coercion: IRELAND – UNITED KINGDOM — Dundalk, Louth, Ireland
- Public statement: BIRMINGHAM – CHRISTIAN — Anatolia, Turkey (general), Turkey
- Material cooperation: UNITED KINGDOM – FRANCE — United Kingdom
- Public statement: MINIST OF AGRICULTURE — Odisha, Orissa, India
The events behind it
Intent to cooperate: TEHRAN — Hurmuz, Siirt, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: SYRIA — Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: UNITED KINGDOM – ANTALYA — Antalya, Antalya, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: UKRAINIAN — Turkey
Intent to cooperate: GOVERNMENT – TURKISH — Dolmabahce, Istanbul, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: SYRIA — Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: SMYRNA – COMMUNITY — Smyrna, Izmir, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: AFRICA — Turkey
Intent to cooperate: GOVERNMENT – TURKISH — Dolmabahce, Istanbul, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: JEAN CLAUDE JUNCKER — Akinci, Siirt, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: TURKEY — Akinci, Siirt, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: PRIME MINISTER – NATO — Ankara, Ankara, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: BANGLADESH – ANKARA — Ankara, Ankara, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: MACEDONIA – GREECE — Ankara, Ankara, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: IRAN – UNITED STATES — Turkey
Intent to cooperate: THE US – IRAN — Turkey
Intent to cooperate: PRESIDENT — Istanbul, Istanbul, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: PRESIDENT – TURKISH — Istanbul, Istanbul, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: TURKISH – PRESIDENT — Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey
Intent to cooperate: TURKISH – TURKEY — Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey