Intent to cooperate: UKRAINE – IRAN — Ust Luga, Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 8 days (62% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Public statement: NIGERIA — Enugu, Enugu, Nigeria
- Consultation: SOMALIA – ISRAEL — Ankara, Ankara, Turkey
- Public statement: SABAH — Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Intent to cooperate: SWISS — Switzerland
- Appeal: IRELAND — Leitrim, Galway, Ireland
- Protest: PARIS – UNITED STATES — Provo Canyon, Utah, United States
- Consultation: BRAZIL – THE WHITE HOUSE — Brazil
- Public statement: BANGKOK — Bangkok, Krung Thep Mahanakhon, Thailand
The events behind it
Intent to cooperate: UNITED STATES — Russia
Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA – IRAN — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Intent to cooperate: CARRIER – COMPANY — Targa, Primorskiy Kray, Russia
Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA — Russia
Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA – IRAN — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Intent to cooperate: OMANI — Russia
Intent to cooperate: OMANI — Russia
Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA – KAZAN — Russia
Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA – KAZAN — Russia
Intent to cooperate: KAZAN – RUSSIA — Russia
Intent to cooperate: KAZAN – RUSSIA — Russia
Intent to cooperate: UKRAINIAN – RUSSIA — Kremlin, Moskva, Russia
Intent to cooperate: NEW DELHI – UNITED STATES — Russia
Intent to cooperate: LOUISIANA — Kremlin, Moskva, Russia
Intent to cooperate: UNITED STATES – NEW DELHI — Russia
Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA – VLADIMIR PUTIN — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Intent to cooperate: UKRAINE – IRAN — Ust Luga, Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia
Intent to cooperate: RUSSIA — Ust Luga, Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia
Intent to cooperate: ENERGY MINIST – FARMER — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
Intent to cooperate: ENERGY MINIST – FARMER — Tatarstan, Tatarstan, Russia