Appeal: IRAN – CONGRESS — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (70% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Armed clash: JUDGE – UNITED STATES — China
- Concession: IRAN – REGIME — Iran
- Coercion: BELARUS — Moscow, Moskva, Russia
- Intent to cooperate: NIGERIA — South Africa
- Consultation: AUSTRALIA – JAPAN — Malawi
- Concession: FRANCE — Paris, France (general), France
- Diplomatic cooperation: SOUTH AFRICAN – SOWETO — Soweto, Gauteng, South Africa
- Consultation: VIENNA — Kenya
The events behind it
Appeal: LEBANON — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: BOTSWANA – GOVERNMENT — Iran
Appeal: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: IRAN – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: LEBANON — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: IRAN – FRANCE — Gulf Of Oman, Iran (general), Iran
Appeal: IRAN – CONGRESS — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: GOVERNMENT — Iran
Appeal: SENATE – IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: SENATE – IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: MINISTRY – PAKISTANI — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: ATTORNEY – UNITED STATES — Iran
Appeal: LEBANON – UNITED STATES — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: FRANCE — Gulf Of Oman, Iran (general), Iran
Appeal: UNITED STATES — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: THE WHITE HOUSE — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: IRAN – LEBANON — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: UNITED STATES – THE WHITE HOUSE — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: VATICAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Appeal: PRESIDENT — Kharg Island, Bushehr, Iran