Armed clash: GUINEA – CHINA — China
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (70% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Intent to cooperate: NIGERIA — South Africa
- Concession: ADMINISTRATION – TEHRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
- Diplomatic cooperation: AFRICA — University Of Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
- Coercion: CAMEROONIAN – RUSSIA — Ust Luga, Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia
- Consultation: ZULU — Malawi
- Concession: THE UN — France
- Appeal: TRAVELLER — Iran
- Consultation: SOUTH KOREA – EGYPT — Kenya
The events behind it
Armed clash: BUSINESS — Beijing, Beijing, China
Armed clash: JUDGE – PRESIDENT — China
Armed clash: JUDGE – UNITED STATES — China
Armed clash: GANG – CHINA — Shanghai, Shanghai, China
Armed clash: CHINA – AFRICA — Yinchuan, Ningxia, China
Armed clash: NETHERLANDS – AFGHANISTAN — China
Armed clash: POPULATION — Tibet, Xizang, China
Armed clash: GUINEA – CHINA — China
Armed clash: GUINEA – CHINA — China
Armed clash: GUINEA – CHINA — China
Armed clash: CHINA – CRIMINAL — Beijing, Beijing, China
Armed clash: CHINA — Beijing, Beijing, China
Armed clash: CHINA – CRIMINAL — Beijing, Beijing, China
Armed clash: CHINA — Beijing, Beijing, China
Armed clash: CHINA – PRESIDENT — China
Armed clash: PRESIDENT – CHINA — China
Armed clash: CHINA – DPRK — Beijing, Beijing, China
Armed clash: DPRK – CHINA — Beijing, Beijing, China
Armed clash: CHINA — China
Armed clash: SRI LANKAN – CHINA — China