Concession: ADMINISTRATION — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (70% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Armed clash: MAURITANIA – CHINA — China
- Consultation: KENYA – TAIWAN — Nairobi, Nairobi Area, Kenya
- Coercion: PRISON — Rostov, Rostovskaya Oblast', Russia
- Intent to cooperate: BUSINESS — Soweto, Gauteng, South Africa
- Consultation: MALAWIAN – PRESIDENT — Malawi
- Concession: PARIS — Paris, France (general), France
- Diplomatic cooperation: WORKER — Pilanesberg, North-West, South Africa
- Threat: HOSPITAL – UNITED KINGDOM — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
The events behind it
Concession: LAWMAKER – IRAN — Iran
Concession: ISRAEL – IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: IRAN – LEBANON — Iran
Concession: IRAN – INDUSTRY — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: IRAN — Minab, Sistan va Baluchestan, Iran
Concession: UNITED STATES – IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: DEPUTY — Baluchestan, Sistan va Baluchestan, Iran
Concession: IRAN – NURSE — Baluchestan, Sistan va Baluchestan, Iran
Concession: IRAN – LEBANON — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: ISRAEL – LEBANON — Iran
Concession: LEBANON – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: UNITED STATES – OIL TANKER — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: IRAN – NEWSPAPER — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: LEBANON – IRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: LEBANON – ISRAEL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: PAKISTAN — Iran
Concession: IRAN – UNITED STATES — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: UNITED STATES — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Concession: WASHINGTON – CARTEL — Iran
Concession: UNITED STATES – NAVAL — Tehran, Tehran, Iran