Threat: UNIONS — Helensburgh, Argyll and Bute, United Kingdom
No next occurrence is being forecast right now — this pattern has gone quiet and needs to keep recurring before we forecast it again.
Why: it has occurred on 7 days (70% of the days we've watched).
Defaxon forecasts when a recurring event is likely to happen again — its rhythm — not the outcome. For a sports fixture that means we flag that the match recurs, not who wins; for a flight, that the route runs, not whether it’s on time. It’s probabilistic early-warning, never prophecy, and it sharpens as the archive grows.
How accurate have we been?
We’re still building its track record — no forecast has come due yet. Watch the dates below resolve to ✓ or ✗ over time.
Patterns that recur together
On the days this pattern occurs, these patterns occur more often than their usual rate (lift > 1). Statistical co-occurrence — an observation, not causation.
- Intent to cooperate: NIGERIA — South Africa
- Concession: THE UN — France
- Diplomatic cooperation: AFRICA — University Of Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
- Coercion: CAMEROONIAN – RUSSIA — Ust Luga, Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia
- Armed clash: GUINEA – CHINA — China
- Consultation: ZULU — Malawi
- Appeal: TRAVELLER — Iran
- Concession: ADMINISTRATION – TEHRAN — Tehran, Tehran, Iran
The events behind it
Threat: MEDIA — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM — Cumbria, Cumbria, United Kingdom
Threat: AUCKLAND — United Kingdom
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM — Midlands, Leicestershire, United Kingdom
Threat: EUROPE — United Kingdom
Threat: EUROPE — United Kingdom
Threat: IRELAND – SCOTLAND — Cumbria, Cumbria, United Kingdom
Threat: IRELAND — Cumbria, Cumbria, United Kingdom
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM — Gloucestershire, Gloucestershire, United Kingdom
Threat: TESCO – UNITED KINGDOM — Gloucestershire, Gloucestershire, United Kingdom
Threat: GOOGLE – INTELLIGENCE — Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
Threat: MICROSOFT — United Kingdom
Threat: POLITICIAN – UNITED KINGDOM — United Kingdom
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
Threat: HOSPITAL — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
Threat: LONDON — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
Threat: HOSPITAL — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
Threat: HOSPITAL – UNITED KINGDOM — London, London, City of, United Kingdom
Threat: UNITED KINGDOM — Brighton, Brighton and Hove, United Kingdom
Threat: FRANCE – UNITED KINGDOM — London, London, City of, United Kingdom